Belize Low Depression

This past weekend Belize got an unexpected rainfall. On Thursday night rain gust of wind hit the mainland central and north of Belize. NEMO and the Government was called to assist and help those in need. Flooding was announced Central, North of Belize. Low areas such as Belize in low houses People called for assistance. But, what could the country do f something like this happens? A quick meeting was held today Sunday October 18, 2015 at 1:30pm By Dean Barrow and his colleges. He said on the meeting the he wants the people to be more alerted , listen to their radio, be prepared for a hurricane, always follow instruction given. Students are are adviced that no classes will be hed on Monday October 19, 2015 due to the weather. So, as Belizeans lets help each unite and let everything happen as good as you want.

An urgent press release was announced on Saturday October 17, 2015.  National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) - ADVISORY NO. 2 “Preserving Life and Property”AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZESATURDAY 16 October 2015 as at 6:00 a.m.The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs that “satellite images, surface observations, and radar data from Belize indicate that the broad area of low pressure has moved inland over central Belize. Although thunderstorm activity has increased near the center of the low and over adjacent waters of the Gulf of Honduras, land interaction is expected to prohibit significant development of this system during the next day or so while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system emerges into the southern Bay of Campeche, west of Belize. 

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. Formation through the 48 hours is low.” So more rains expected along the coast and Northern areas of the country. Captains of small crafts are advised to take caution. All are advised to stay out of flood waters.Currently three (3) families, a total of 15 persons have been rescued by BASAR (formerly BDARRT ) along with the Area Representative are safe and dry in the Hope Creek Methodist School Shelter. They will be going home this morning. It has stop raining and the water has receded in Hope Creek, Sarawee and Dangriga.All are advised that more flooding is expected. 

People on the Cayes, who live along rivers, creeks water ways and low-lying areas, farmers and fisher folks, are cautioned to heed this advisory and take the necessary precautions to save life. Drivers are asked to slow down and put on their hazard lights when driving through rain.NEMO Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows; Corozal, Mr. Williard Levy at 623 0237; Orange Walk, Ms. Suliema Celiz at 605 5046, Northern Regional Coordinator, Mr. Aragon at 636 6094; Belize District, Mr. Calbert Budd at 602 8632 and Mr. Kevin Pollard at 621 2275;

San Pedro, Ms. Timrose Augustine at 6008672; Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 630 9791; Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 630 3224; Stann Creek, Mr. Victor Castillo at 630 9780; and Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 630 9787. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936.The public is asked to pay close attention the National Meteorological Service weather reports.NEMO remains on alert.:-End of Release:-

This comes frome the Hurricane update status

For next week's weather we’re going to see a pattern change next week whereby, after a very dry five weeks in which most of Houston has gotten less than a quarter inch of rain, we could finally see some significant rain. Perhaps a lot of rain.

For several days some of the major global forecast models, including the European and GFS systems, have suggested some kind of tropical or non-tropical disturbance may develop in the Gulf of Mexico during the second half of next week.What could happen is that an area of disturbed weather now off the coasts of Belize and Honduras will move across Central America during the next couple of days and develop into a tropical storm, or possibly even a hurricane by Tuesday or so of next week. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is a 50 percent chance of the system becoming at least a tropical depression south of Mexico. Heavy rains are a big concern for Central America and Mexico.

Then, by the middle of next week, the system should get pulled north, across Mexico, toward the Gulf of Mexico. It might die over land, or some remnants might emerge into the Bay of Campeche and then move north into the western or central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday or Friday.If the system survives Mexico, what happens after that? No one knows. But the models suggest a range of possibilities, from a rain-making tropical system moving into Texas, to potentially a more intense storm moving east, toward Louisiana or Florida.

For the greater Houston area it’s a safe bet that we’re going to see rain from tropical moisture after Wednesday of next week. But will it be 1 inch, or 8 inches? Something to watch.

HURRICANE

Could a hurricane hit Texas?

I would rate that as highly unlikely. No hurricane, in at least the last 150 years, has struck Texas after October 16th (Storm Six, 1912 Atlantic season).

However there has been one October storm like this one. A hurricane in 1949 made landfall near Freeport as a Category 2 storm, on October 4, after drifting across Central America.My overall sense of this present-day system is that, if it’s going to track into Texas, its path will linger over Mexico for a longer time, weakening it. Then, after moving into the Gulf of Mexico it will have to remain relatively close to the Texas shore, limiting significant re-intensification.

But we’re talking about things that will happen seven days from now, and I have low confidence in any scenario at this point.